Share of Armenians saying country is on right track returns to pre-2020 war levels, survey shows

A total of 61% of Armenians believe the country is heading in the right direction, according to a survey by the International Republican Institute published on Friday. 

The poll was conducted between May 5 and 11 through telephone interviews with 1,511 respondents across the country.

This marks the highest level since October 2019, when 62% expressed similar views in the last survey conducted before the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh – while the region was still under full Armenian control. After the war, the figure hit rock bottom at 31% in June 2022.

In the most recent poll, 28% of respondents said they do not approve of the country’s direction.

Perceptions were more positive in rural areas, where 68% said Armenia is on the right track, compared to 62% in smaller urban areas and 54% among residents of Yerevan. A similar pattern was observed across age groups: 54% of those aged 18 to 35 said the country is heading in the right direction, compared to roughly two-thirds of respondents aged 56 and older.

The most pressing issue cited by respondents was national security and the border situation (17%), a notable decline from 44% in the same survey 11 months earlier. This was followed by unemployment (15%) and the lack of peace (12%). Other commonly cited concerns included the cost of living, low wages, lack of national unity, and what respondents described as incorrect foreign policy.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan again topped the list as the country’s most trusted politician, named as the first choice by 27% of respondents. He was followed at a considerable distance by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who was cited by 6%.

As in previous surveys, however, the most common response was “trust none,” selected by 40% of those polled, while another 13% said they did not know or refused to answer.

As in previous surveys, however, the most common response was “trust none,” selected by 40% of those polled, while another 13% said they did not know or refused to answer.

Despite this distrust, declared willingness to participate in elections remains high. Some 79% of respondents said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, while another 13% said they are somewhat likely to do so. The combined 92% marks a significant increase from 73% recorded in the same survey conducted ahead of the previous election in June 2021, when actual turnout stood at 49.37%.

Among those who said they are very likely to vote, 38% indicated support for the ruling Civil Contract party led by Nikol Pashinyan. It was followed by Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia party with 7%, and former president Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance with 4%. Some 20% of likely voters said they remain undecided, while a further 23% declined to disclose their preference.

A total of 71% of respondents said they believe the upcoming election will be free and fair, including 34% who said they are completely certain of this. Another 12% said it will definitely not be free and fair, while roughly the same proportion expressed doubts, saying it will “probably” not meet those standards.