Civilnet
By Alexander Pracht
Baku’s pressure on Yerevan to change its constitution through a popular vote could prove counterproductive, stoking rather than alleviating the threat of Armenians with a nationalist agenda returning to power and seeking to retake control of Karabakh, according to a report published Friday by the Belgium-based liberal think tank International Crisis Group.
“A change in Armenia’s constitution to remove the references to Karabakh will not in itself eliminate irredentism from Armenian political culture. After all, any future Armenian government that believes it can take back Karabakh will not be constrained by what is or is not in the constitution,” the report said.
Crisis Group cautioned that Azerbaijani pressure risks undermining Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s efforts to sideline irredentist views and weakening what it called the best negotiating partner Baku is likely to have.
The report argued that constitutional reform carries a high chance of failure, which could collapse the peace process altogether. Even if attempted, it would take at least a year to complete, during which time stray fire on the border, internal instability in Armenia, or wider global turmoil could derail the effort.
Foreign diplomats have warned Baku that its demands could easily backfire, but these admonitions “do not seem to be taken seriously,” the report noted. Azerbaijani officials have cited Ireland and North Macedonia as examples of countries that changed their constitutions to secure peace. Yet one European diplomat told Crisis Group that if Azerbaijan came to see the peace agreement itself as the priority, it could still back down on the constitutional issue.
The think tank suggested confidence-building measures such as demilitarizing border areas and opening communication channels between the two militaries to reduce the risk of escalation. It also noted that policymakers in Baku often see the peace deal as a net loss from a zero-sum perspective, making them “comfortable with the situation they have now.”
Securing approval for constitutional reform through a referendum would be a steep challenge, analysts said. It would require a majority of votes cast in favor and a turnout of at least 25% of all registered voters. Local experts told ICG that turnout will be difficult to secure for a reform that even supporters view with reluctance, especially if the referendum is not held alongside parliamentary elections.
“It will never pass. It’s impossible,” a member of Armenia’s constitutional reform council told the publication.
Although Karabakh Armenian speakers have criticized the peace deal for sidelining the return of refugees and warned they may try to act as spoilers, ICG concluded that they hold little sway among a society fatigued by war.
Stories
