Pashinyan leads, but uncertainty looms ahead of Sunday's vote, CRRC poll shows

By Siranush Adamyan

With parliamentary elections two days away, the most recent pre-election survey gives Civil Contract a clear lead, while a majority of voters remain undecided or unwilling to disclose their choice.

The most comprehensive pre-election snapshot of Armenian public opinion ahead of Sunday's parliamentary vote comes from a survey published on Wednesday by the Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC)-Armenia foundation. Conducted between May 29 and 31, making it the most recent poll released ahead of the June 7 elections, the survey questioned 1,200 respondents and has a margin of error of ±2.8%. It was conducted by telephone (CATI) and was self-funded and self-initiated by CRRC-Armenia as a contribution toward addressing what the organization described as a lack of transparency in pre-election polling. 

Pashinyan leads, but the undecided bloc dwarfs everyone

Among the 1,200 respondents, 24.2% said they intended to vote for the ruling Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. No other party came close: the Strong Armenia Alliance of billionaire Samvel Karapetyan was the second most-named choice at 5.3%, followed by the Armenia bloc of second president Robert Kocharyan at 2.3% and billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia at 1.4%.

But those headline figures need to be read against the backdrop of a massive undisclosed bloc: 42.7% of all respondents refused to answer the party preference question, and another 19.2% said they simply didn't know, together accounting for more than six in ten of those surveyed. When non-voters are factored in as well, the picture of voter intent remains deeply uncertain. 

A separate IRI poll conducted by the International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research, with fieldwork from May 5–11 and a larger sample of 1,511 respondents, reported broadly consistent top-line findings. Civil Contract led at 32% of all respondents, or 38% among those who said they were very likely to vote. Strong Armenia came second at 6–7%, and the Armenia Alliance at 3–4%. But the IRI poll also found 23% undecided and 21% refusing to answer, meaning once again more than four in ten respondents declined to name a party. 

Taken together, the two surveys confirm Civil Contract's dominant position while underscoring the scale of the undisclosed vote, which makes any projection of parliamentary seat distribution highly speculative.

Turnout intent is strikingly high

One of the most notable findings of the CRRC survey is the level of stated intent to vote. Some 82.2% of respondents said they would "definitely" vote on June 7, with a further 7.3% saying they were likely to do so. Only about 7% said they would probably or definitely not vote. This marks a dramatic shift from CRRC's own 2024 Caucasus Barometer data, in which only 45% said they would "definitely" participate if elections were held the following Sunday.

The IRI poll similarly found high turnout intent, with 79% of respondents calling themselves "very likely" to vote, up from 68% in IRI's February 2026 survey. Older voters (56+) expressed the highest likelihood at 91%, compared to 65% for the 18–35 cohort. 

CRRC cautions that stated turnout intent in pre-election surveys consistently overstates actual participation, and that its findings should not be read as a forecast of election-day results.

Also read: Share of Armenians saying country is on right track returns to pre-2020 war levels, survey shows

Response rates and methodological notes

One difference between the two polls worth noting is the response rate. CRRC-Armenia recorded a 37.4% response rate for its May survey, relatively robust for telephone polling. IRI reported a 16% response rate for its May survey. Both organizations used random digit dialling and weighted their samples for age, gender, and settlement type. CRRC-Armenia conducted its fieldwork slightly later and with a shorter questionnaire, factors that likely contributed to both the higher response rate and its status as the most temporally proximate snapshot of public sentiment before election day.

Confidence in the vote and national mood

On the question of whether Sunday's elections will be free and fair, 55.5% of CRRC respondents said yes, while 17.1% said no or probably not. The IRI poll found a somewhat more cautious electorate: 71% said the elections would be free and fair (combining "definitely" and "probably"), while 26% said they would not be, with Civil Contract voters far more confident and opposition supporters far more skeptical.

On national direction, CRRC found 53.4% of respondents saying Armenia is heading the right way, compared to 22.1% who said the wrong way. IRI found 61% saying the right direction, a figure that has risen significantly from the survey’s low of 31% recorded in December 2021.

Context

The CRRC-Armenia foundation published its survey explicitly as a corrective to what it described as an opaque pre-election polling environment, noting that some circulating surveys lack clear funding disclosures, offer non-transparent methodological descriptions, or present poll results as electoral forecasts, a practice the organization called methodologically problematic. "The public has the right and deserves to see a real picture of public opinion," the foundation wrote, "without unnecessary noise, without prejudiced interpretations."

Armenia's parliamentary elections take place on Sunday, June 7.