Civilnet
Reuters
The six month standoff between Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili is rapidly approaching its culmination. On 22 March, the Georgian parliament, in which Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream holds 83 seats compared with 65 for Saakashvili’s United National Movement, is to vote on a crucial constitutional amendment that would strip Saakashvili of the right to dismiss the government and then dissolve parliament too if it fails to endorse two successive new proposed cabinets. In that case, the president is empowered to form a new government singlehandedly and then call elections for a new parliament.
Ivanishvili has unequivocally denounced that provision as “constitutional dictatorship.” Irakli Menagharishvili, who served as Georgian foreign minister under Eduard Shevardnadze, points out that in no other country does the president possess this prerogative.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that the president may not avail himself of this power for a period of six months after, and six months before a national election. The parliamentary election in which Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream defeated the ENM was on 1 October, and a presidential election is due next October. So Saakashvili has only a one-month window of opportunity, starting on 1 April, in which to strike against his rival.
Granted, Saakashvili has said repeatedly over the past couple of months that he has no intention of dismissing the government. But at the same time, he never misses an opportunity to criticize Ivanishvili and his government and to misrepresent their policies to the international community. What’s more, both Saakashvili and his eminence grise, former Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, who now heads the ENM, argue that “we must not give this government four years [in power]… It does not mean that we will stage a coup and overthrow it, but we should not let this government implement the plan it has – to weaken Georgia.”
Irakli Okruashvili, who served as defense minister under Saakashvili before denouncing him in 2007 for condoning corruption and human rights violations and leaving Georgia for Europe, suggests that Saakashvili’s repeated assurances that he will not dissolve the government are a smokescreen. Okruashvili predicts that instead Saakashvili will dismiss the interior, justice and foreign ministers, and then reappoint Merabishvili interior minister.
Meanwhile, the ENM parliament faction is doing all in its power to prevent a vote on the crucial amendment. Following a meeting on 19 March that Saakashvili attended, the ENM announced it would support the constitutional amendment only if a non-binding vote were held on it first to determine whether Georgian Dream has the required two-thirds majority (100 votes). After that non-binding vote, the ENM would ensure that the amendment is passed.
Parliament speaker David Usupashvili, representing Georgian Dream, has rejected that approach. Usupashvili pointed out that it is already clear that Georgian Dream has fewer than 100 mandates. Usupashvili stressed that Georgian Dream is simply proposing that the ENM minority participate “in taking the right decision for the parliament and the country,” a decision that will, Usupashvili argued, “pave the way for other correct decisions and for creating a normal political situation in the country.”
The Georgian Dream leadership is seemingly confident that enough ENM parliamentarians are willing to support the amendment to make up the shortfall. If they turn out to be wrong, however, and the amendment fails to pass, the current uncertainty and instability will persist, and Saakashvili may resort to the tactic Okruashvili mentioned of bringing Merabishvili back into government.
Liz Fuller
Stories
