Civilnet
The three opposition parties represented in Armenia’s National Assembly -- the Armenian National Congress, the Heritage Party and Prosperous Armenia Party conducted countrywide protests against the government’s proposal to make amendments to the country’s constitution, culminating with a large rally in Yerevan’s Liberty Square on October 10. Political scientist Stepan Danielyan, in an interview with CivilNet’s Arpi Makhsudyan spoke about the current political situation in Armenia. According to Danielyan, Armenia’s government is showing signs of fracture.
Arpi Makhsudyan: Mr Danielyan, two poles have emerged in Armenia; on the one side is the president and the Republican Party, which hold administrative and political leverages, and on the other side is the three opposition powers, which held a large rally at Freedom Square on October 10. In your opinion, what is the political situation at the moment, and what can be expected from the current clash of these political forces?
Stepan Danielyan: There is a crack in power in Armenia. Both sides have leverages and opportunities. One side has state, power institutions, the other has the sympathies of the business sector, and this side is trying to present this as a bourgeois revolution. Whether they succeed and how it will change our lives is hard to predict. But I want to emphasize that if we expect that some power will come and change our lives, this will not happen, as long as certain structures in society do not begin organizing. Armenia will be a normal country only when there is a society which is cognizant of its rights. We don’t have that society at the moment, and these sprouts which provided some hope for that are now engaged in the political struggle as part of the two sides, and not from a third side. The situation is deadlocked because the power that rules Armenia - Serzh Sargsyan and the Republican Party -- is incomprehensible even to their own party members, because not only is it unclear where they are headed but there is also no prospect for the future, at least in their statements. This situation must be changed by utilizing every opportunity. I think the three opposition powers will at least bring bring a breath of fresh air to this swamp, and political processes will begin. As to where it will lead depends on us, we need to also influence those processes. We should not hope that kind, humane politicians will suddenly materialize and change our lives...this is not possible. We need to realize that any political force is bad, and we need to construct our relations with these forces with this in mind.
AM: When speaking of the activities of the three opposition parties, many political scientists and civic groups have expressed doubt, noting that there were election violations during Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s presidency, not excluding all the negative phenomena that exist today in Armenia, which were strengthened and crystallized later during Kocharyan’s presidency. As to Gagik Tsarukyan, they say he is no different from Serzh Sargsyan, moreover, he’s just a businessman that is playing the role of an opposition leader. They say nothing can be expected from the three opposition powers. In your opinion, what role does all of this play on political developments?
SD: The political scientists are right, but they also insist that there is nothing they can do. We all know that right from the beginning, the country embarked in the wrong direction, and all the political figures involved without exception are responsible for that. Now the situation has unfolded, and we do not know where we stand. We have gotten to the place where many people are questioning the future existence of this state and every one is trying to solve their own problems, the pragmatic ones leave for good. This logic comes from and is informed by this specific place, and we are witness to the absurdity of it. And many of those who speak out publicly, are dishonest.
AM: Have there been instances in history when large capital holders came out against the government when the latter posed a threat to their existence?
SD: Large capital holders have always come out against the state, even if it was through others. Large capital always had a direct role and guided the process, if not directly, then through other people. However, in Armenia, he has come out directly and is trying to make a change. I think Tsarukyan is not the issue, because many are dissatisfied. Tsarukyan is just better protected and can afford such things: there’s a party, there are leverages outside the country, and he has taken the mission on himself. As to where that mission will lead or what will happen, if supposedly the three opposition powers succeed in overthrowing the current government, no one knows the answer. In my opinion, we have to place the answers to these questions and issues before those very people who have come out against the authorities. We have to say, this is the situation and as a guarantee you must now take these steps. This is something that should be done by political scientists who shape public opinion and interests. This is the issue in my opinion - do we know what we want or not, and whether its a triumvirate or a quartet is not the point. In the absence of this, criticizing people or institutions is useless.
AM: Why have the Constitutional changes been put into circulation now, and do they really aim to change the process of the development of the state?
SD: The issue is Serzh Sargsyan’s reproduction in power. Since he can not be a president anymore, he wants to reproduce himself in some other office, and wants to amend the Constitution accordingly. It is more than obvious.
AM: Is Deputy Prime Minister Armen Gevorgyan's resignation an indication that the system is cracking from within?
SD: The system has always had inner cracks, we witnessed the same on March 1, 2008. What kind of people are in the system? Those who stand by this or that person not because of their ideas but because of the person’s power. And it’s the same in Russia and elsewhere. But if Serzh Sargsyan shows that the system is weak, it will immediately crack and the power will pass on to the strong ones.
AM: On October 24, the three opposition powers will present a roadmap of activities. What are your expectations as a citizen?
SD: Similar to the March 2008 rallies, the public will shout “Now, Now!” and the three opposition powers will have to give an answer of some kind. I do not know whether they will say or do something to make the rallies more active. Otherwise, the three opposition powers will face psychological defeat, and not only in the eyes of society but also in the eyes of the faltering business-criminal-bureaucratic segment, which is waiting to take the side of the strongest force. Serzh Sargsyan has problems both with the West and with Russia, and has lack of trust from both sides, unlike in 2008 when he had their support. Today that trust is absent and to say that the government will dare come out and shoot at citizens is not easy. It won’t be easy to do it.
Stories
