Civilnet
By Mark Dovich
Armenia’s relations with Russia, its traditional security ally and main economic partner, have worsened dramatically in recent days, as tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan approach a boiling point.
A ‘crisis of functionality’ at the CSTO
Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan recalled the country’s representative to the Collective Security Treaty Organization on Tuesday. Viktor Biyagov, who represented Armenia in the Russian-led military alliance, has been reposted, and it is unclear if or when a replacement will be announced.
In unusually frank remarks days earlier, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan slammed the CSTO for failing to come to Armenia’s aid after Azerbaijan launched a full-scale attack on the country last September.
The CSTO’s inaction amounted to a crisis of “functionality and treaty-worthiness” for the alliance, Pashinyan said, calling Armenia’s security reliance on Russia a “strategic mistake.”
During the hostilities last September, Armenia formally appealed to the CSTO for help, but the alliance elected not to send assistance, despite treaty obligations, and only dispatched a fact-finding mission to the ground after the United States brokered a ceasefire.
Armenia to host military drills with US
One day after Khachaturyan’s move to recall Armenia’s CSTO envoy, Armenia’s Defense Ministry announced it would host joint military drills with the United States later this month.
In a statement, the ministry said “the purpose of the exercises is to increase the level of interoperability of units participating in international peacekeeping missions.”
A U.S. military spokesperson told Reuters that 175 Armenian soldiers and 85 U.S. personnel, including members of the Kansas National Guard, would take part.
In response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the drills “raise concern” in Moscow and pledged to “monitor the situation.”
Last week, troops from CSTO members Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan held joint military exercises in Belarus, but Armenia pointedly declined to participate.
Russia warns Armenia against joining ICC
Meanwhile, the spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday Moscow expects “clarifications” about Armenia’s intent to join the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March.
“We will decide on our next steps based on the content of Yerevan’s response,” Maria Zakharova told reporters, without elaborating.
Last week, Pashinyan’s administration formally asked parliament to ratify the Rome Statute, a move that would bring Armenia under the Hague tribunal’s jurisdiction — and raise the possibility Armenia would be expected to arrest Putin should he visit the country.
Armenia’s National Assembly is expected to debate the matter within a month.
Earlier, an unnamed source in Russia’s Foreign Ministry told TASS Moscow had warned Yerevan about “extremely negative” consequences if Armenia joins the ICC.
Hakobyan’s visit and aid to Ukraine
Against the backdrop of recent events, Anna Hakobyan, Pashinyan’s wife, traveled to Kyiv Wednesday to speak at an annual summit of first ladies and gentlemen. It is believed to be the first visit by a senior Armenian figure to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country last February.
Hakobyan will also deliver a batch of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, unnamed sources told Radio Azatutyun, which would mark the first time Armenia has provided assistance to Ukraine since the war began. Yerevan did not immediately confirm the delivery of an aid package.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Armenia has been careful neither to condone nor condemn the hostilities. At the United Nations, for instance, Armenia has repeatedly abstained on Ukraine war resolutions.
In his strongest remarks on the topic to date, Pashinyan told reporters in June, “We are not Russia's ally in its war with Ukraine,” adding, “We are not anyone's ally in this situation.”
What does this mean for Armenia?
“We’re witnessing now probably the most serious crisis in Armenia-Russia relations” since Azerbaijan’s attack on Armenia last September, said Tigran Grigoryan, head of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security.
Grigoryan pointed to Russia’s unwillingness or inability to fulfill its obligations to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as “the root cause of this crisis,” saying Moscow’s inaction has forced Yerevan to “start engaging more with Western counterparts.”
Benyamin Poghosyan, senior research fellow at APRI Armenia, also characterized tensions between Armenia and Russia as hitting “another level” in recent days.
At the same time, both analysts sought to downplay the long-term ramifications of the growing friction between the two countries.
“On a more structural level, I don't think that we're going to witness any drastic changes in Armenia’s foreign policy,” Grigoryan told CivilNet. “Nobody should underestimate the structural dependence of Armenia on Russia, particularly the economic and energy dependence.”
Poghosyan echoed that point of view: “I don’t believe this is some qualitative change” in Armenia’s relations with the West, he said.
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