Civilnet
By Alexander Pracht
The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecasts for Armenia, projecting the country’s GDP to expand by 5.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, according to its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2025 report released on Tuesday.
In its previous spring outlook, the World Bank expected Armenia’s economy to grow by 4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. The forecast for 2027 has also been revised upward, from 4.5% to 4.7%.
Armenia’s economy has grown rapidly in recent years, peaking at an exceptional 12.6% in 2022. The surge was largely driven by the influx of tens of thousands of Russians moving to Armenia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, bringing with them capital and new businesses. Several thousand Ukrainian refugees also settled in the country, further boosting consumption and services.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022 allowed Armenia and other post-Soviet states to profit from reexports and parallel trade. Armenia in particular saw a spike in exports of gold and gemstones to the United Arab Emirates, which experts linked to the resale of Russian-origin gold. That trend has since slowed.
Despite the improved outlook, the World Bank noted that Armenia’s economic potential remains constrained by large workforce outflows and widespread overqualification. According to the Bank’s 2024 report The Journey Ahead, 29% of Armenia’s total population lives abroad, with more than half residing in Russia. The Tuesday report also found that around 40% of workers in Armenia are overqualified for their jobs, a pattern common in post-Soviet and Eastern European countries but less prevalent in Western Europe and Scandinavia.
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