Alexander Pracht
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Armenia’s aspirations to join the European Union could lead to consequences similar to those seen in Ukraine, drawing a direct link between EU integration efforts and the outbreak of conflict there.
Speaking on Saturday at a press briefing following Russia’s Victory Day parade, Putin referred to developments in Ukraine as a cautionary example.
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“We saw the same thing in Ukraine. It all started with Ukraine’s attempt to join the EU. That was just the first stage. [...] All of this then led to a coup, the events in Crimea and in southeastern Ukraine, to hostilities. This is a serious issue,” he said.
Putin added, however, that escalation should be avoided.
“There is no need to push things to the extreme – it is necessary to say in a timely manner what course [they] intend to take,” he said.
He claimed that Russia would not oppose a European future for Armenia in principle, while calling for clarity on the country’s strategic direction.
“In my view, it would be right, both for the people of Armenia and for us as its main economic partner, to make the decision as soon as possible, for example, by holding a referendum. [...] Based on [its results], we would draw our own conclusions and proceed along the path of a soft, civilized, and mutually beneficial separation,” Putin said.
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Tensions in Armenian-Russian relations have been building since September 2022, when Azerbaijan launched incursions into Armenian territory. Despite both Yerevan and Moscow being members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, the bloc declined to provide military assistance.
The fallout deepened as Russia failed to deliver pre-paid weapons to Armenia that same year, leading Armenia to suspend its participation in the alliance and seek defense cooperation elsewhere, including major arms deals with India and France.
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Economic disagreements have also intensified following the Armenian parliament’s adoption last year of a law declaring the country’s intention to join the European Union, a bloc Moscow views as hostile. Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, which provides access to a common market that four other post-Soviet countries, including Russia, its largest trading partner.
Since the adoption of the EU-oriented law, senior Russian officials have repeatedly said Armenia must choose between integration with the EU and remaining within Moscow-led structures, arguing the two paths are mutually exclusive. Yerevan has responded by signaling its intention to remain in the EEU for as long as possible, at least until any irreversible commitments toward EU membership are made.
Putin’s remarks referenced Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan uprising, which followed then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to abandon an association agreement with the EU in favor of closer ties with Moscow. The protests led to Yanukovych’s removal from power and his subsequent flight to Russia. Later that year, Russia launched a proxy war in eastern Ukraine, followed by a full-scale invasion in 2022 and the annexation of five Ukrainian regions.
Despite Putin’s remarks being an implicit threat of war, Armenia’s foreign ministry has yet to release a statement. However, speaking to local outlet NewsAM on Sunday, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan struck a cautious tone in a continued effort to balance ties with both blocs.
“As of now, [Armenia is] a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. It is no secret that the people of Armenia have European aspirations, so to say. When the time comes to decide, we shall decide,” he said.
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