Alexander Pracht
The member states of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union have warned Armenia that it could lose about 15.6% of its GDP if it abandons the bloc in favor of pursuing European Union membership.
The assessment was made in a joint report prepared by the governments of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and published today. At the same time, Armenia’s potential exit would have a far smaller economic impact on the remaining members, the report claimed.
“For the economies of the Union’s member states, the economic effect of suspending Armenia’s membership would not be significant,” it said.
Armenia joined the Russian led union in 2014 without holding a nationwide referendum. However, Russia has been pressuring Armenia to hold one in recent months to decide whether to remain in the bloc as the government pursues closer ties with Europe, warning it might otherwise suspend Armenia’s membership.
Russian officials have said they expect Armenia to announce a referendum and set a date for it by the end of this year. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pushed back, saying Armenia will hold a referendum only once it formally applies for EU membership.
Also read: Armenia to apply for EU membership ‘soon,’ says Pashinyan
Since April, Moscow has gradually introduced trade restrictions on Armenian goods, seeking to use bilateral trade as political leverage. Armenia has long relied heavily on agricultural exports to Russia.
To help Armenia cope with the economic impact of the Russian restrictions, the EU introduced a tariff waiver covering 80% of Armenian goods, which took effect earlier this month and will remain in place for two years.
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