Armenia’s Population Numbers Hit Lowest Levels Since 1990s

By Emilio Luciano Cricchio According to the Statistical Committee of Armenia, as of January 1, 2019, Armenia’s permanent population is at 2,965,300. This is a 550,000 drop from the early 1990s at the time of Armenian's independence from the Soviet Union. Despite a speculated reduction in emigration, the general population figures are still on the decline. Analysts have pinned the figure on long term declines in the birth rates, as well as an increase in mortality rates. According to the United Nations, Armenia’s birth rate has been declining relatively significantly. In 2014, 43,183 births recorded, while in 2016 the number was at 40,592 and in 2018 at 36,502. This is further coupled by a steady death rate in the last few years, ranging from 26,000 to 28,000. For a society not to experience a population decline, fertility rates should be around the 2.1 mark. However, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Armenia’s fertility rate is at 1.57, the lowest in the region, with Georgia having a fertility rate of 1.76 and Azerbaijan at 2.1. In August 2019, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan vowed to increase the population of Armenia to at least 5 million by 2050. However, the UNFPA is less optimistic about this vision. Tsovinar Harutyunyan, a representative of UNFPA Armenia, responded to Pashinyan, saying, “We will (...) record a population decline to 2.816 million by 2050. Notabily, this is just a forecast.The vision which the government has presented is not based on the future.” Armenia’s population since 1990 (data from Statiscal Committee of Armenia) 1990 – 3,514,900 1991 – 3,574,500 1992 – 3,633,300 1993 – 3,463,700 1994 – 3,356,700 1995 – 3,260,300 1996 – 3,248,800 1997 – 3,246,000 1998 – 3,238,200 1999 – 3,232,100 2000 – 3,226,900 2001 – 3,215,300 2002 – 3,208,300 2003 – 3,191,200 2004 – 3,173,800 2005 – 3,156,000 2006 – 3,136,800 2007 – 3,117,400 2008 – 3,097,300 2009 – 3,076,800 2010 – 3,055,200 2011 – 3,034,500 2012 – 3,021,400 2013 – 3,026,900 2014 – 3,017,100 2015 – 3,010,600 2016 – 2,998,600 2017 – 2,986,100 2018 – 2,972,700 2019 – 2,965,300