IMF: Armenia Headed Towards Economic Recession in 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its 2015 “World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth Short- and Long-Term Factors” report, which predicts a 1-percent decline in Armenia’s economy for 2015, and no increase or decrease for 2016.

In October 2014, the IMF had predicted 3.3 percent growth in Armenia’s economy for 2015. The State Budget is based on a projected growth of 4.2 percent while the Central Bank expects growth between 0.4 and 2.0 percent.

The IMF predicts a 2.5-percent increase in the overall world economy in 2015 and a 3.8-percent increase in 2016. According to the report, the growth in developed countries will be greater than in developing countries. International oil prices continue to have a major impact on global economic growth.

The United States economy is expected to grow by 3.1 percent between 2015 and 2016, and the Eurozone economies will grow by 1.5 percent in 2015 and another 1.6 percent in 2016.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, the economy is expected to decrease by 2.6 percent in 2015, but increase by 0.3 percent in 2016. Meanwhile in Russia, the IMF predicted an economic decline by 3.8 percent and 1.1 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

The drop in the international prices of oil have negatively impacted the economies of Organization of Petroleum Exploiting Countries (OPEC) member nations. Russia’s situation is worsened by the geopolitical complexities of the region and economic sanctions forced upon the country.

In the case of Armenia, the economic slowdown due to the poor economic situation in Russia, as well as the fall in international prices of raw materials.

The IMF predicts a 0.6 and 2.5 percent growth for Azerbaijan and 2 and 3 percent growth for Georgia for the years of 2015 and 2016, respectively.