Op ed: Addressing Armenia's Demographic Challenges

By Alec Seferian

Since its independence from the Soviet Union on September 21,1991, Armenia’s population has declined from 3.6 million people to 2.8 million, according to data from World Population Review, an independent organization that collates and analyzes demographic data and is used by over 10 million people each month. 

The latest census conducted by the Armenian government in October 2022 showed a permanent population of 2.93 million people, with a current population of 2.64 million people. The permanent population counts everyone with Armenian residency, even if they have recently emigrated. The current population count includes all individuals present in Armenia on the day of the census, regardless of their permanent residency status. 

These unorthodox census methods don’t offer the most accurate measurements, but together with third party estimates they underscore the alarming trend of population decline. 

UN projections are even more disheartening. They estimate that Armenia will have a population of only 2.57 million by 2050. This is half of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's goal of 5 million, which he announced in August 2019, without any tangible strategies.

Like most nations around the world, Armenia has had to contend with a rapidly declining fertility rate. According to Macrotrends, a leading economic and demographic research platform, Armenian women had almost five children on average in 1959. The average number of children gradually declined to about 1.75 at the beginning of the new century, and has flatlined since then – a far cry from the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population. 

There is no clear solution to this problem. Many countries have tried generous subsidies and extended maternal leaves, which in some cases have proven to be helpful but not sufficient enough to create a substantial impact. 

It is a cultural reality that women do not want to have as many children as past generations, and when they do it’s often later in life. More career opportunities for women, the escalating cost of raising a child, and the prevalence of contraception and abortion has solidified the low birth rate. The solution to the demographic problem for the Western world has been immigration, and it’s time Armenia follows suit.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, hundreds of thousands of Armenians took the chance to emigrate and try their luck elsewhere, mainly to Russia, America and France. According to the head of Armenia’s Migration Service, Armen Ghazaryan, 60-70,000 Armenians on average migrated yearly to Russia for work prior to the invasion of Ukraine. This massive outward migration has also skewed the gender balance in Armenia, as most of the migrant workers to Russia have been men.

Conversely, immigration into Armenia has historically been low, though lately there has been an increase in repatriation to the homeland. Conflict and economic troubles in Syria and Lebanon have led to a Western Armenian renaissance, resulting in new ideas, perspectives and culinary influences. 

The war in Ukraine has additionally brought tens of thousands of Armenians and non-Armenians flooding into the country. It remains to be seen if these transplants will become permanent residents, or if they will just wait out the end of the war before returning back. Very few Armenians repatriate from Western countries like France and the United States, which can be an area worth targeting for the Armenian government. Wage and housing subsidies can be used to coax those who are on the fence about repatriating to Armenia.

In addition to promoting Armenian repatriation, Armenia should actively encourage immigration from other nations. Given the severity of its demographic crisis, Armenia cannot afford to be selective about who it welcomes. A growing immigrant class from India and Iran has potential to be increased further, and India’s overpopulation problem in particular can serve to benefit Armenia’s population decline. 

These groups tend to work in the construction or service sectors and attend medical programs, though increasing military cooperation with India in recent years can be translated into further social and political cooperation, perhaps even bringing heavy industry and manufacturing to Armenia. A native weapons manufacturing industry can be a large boon to a country that relies on arms imports to meet its ever increasing security needs.

Successful integration of these communities is not without precedent, as an Indian-Armenian woman by the name of Santosh Kumari Arora has shown. She has fully immersed herself into Armenian life, learned the language, and has five children with her Armenian husband. Santosh found comfort in the familiarity of her new home country.

"Our histories are very similar," Santosh says. "Both the Armenians and the Indians have always suffered from foreign invaders, have always taken the role of defenders. Through the Armenian history I fell in love with the Armenian people." Perhaps Santosh can serve as an inspiration to future generations of mixed families in Armenia. If Armenia plays its cards right and strategically attracts and accommodates immigrants, the entire nation can reap the rewards, fostering prosperity, growth and a brighter future for the republic.

Alec Seferian is a Mechanical Engineer from Boston, Massachusetts. He is currently a volunteer with Birthright Armenia, interning at CivilNet.