Author and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb said he had declined an invitation to lecture in Azerbaijan, citing the imprisonment of Armenian businessman and former Nagorno-Karabakh State Minister Ruben Vardanyan.
"I was asked to go to Azerbaijan for a lecture. I declined (they hugely upped their offer, not understanding my ethics, thinking it would make a difference)," Taleb wrote on X.
"I will not set foot in Azerbaijan with Ruben Vardanyan jailed there."
The post quickly gained traction in Armenia, where it was widely shared by public figures, journalists and social media users.
Taleb, a Lebanese-born American essayist, former options trader and risk analyst, is best known for his bestselling book "The Black Swan", which explores the outsized impact of rare and unpredictable events. He is also the author of Antifragile, Fooled by Randomness and Skin in the Game, and is regarded as one of the world's leading thinkers on uncertainty, probability and risk.
In December 2023, Taleb visited Armenia, where he gave an interview to CivilNet discussing Armenia's security challenges, geopolitics, risk management and the resilience of small states.
Vardanyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire philanthropist who served briefly as the de facto state minister of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2022-2023, was detained by Azerbaijani border guards in September 2023 while attempting to leave the region following Azerbaijan's military offensive that forced the displacement of the territory's entire Armenian population.
In February 2026, an Azerbaijani military court sentenced Vardanyan to 20 years in prison on multiple charges, including terrorism, financing terrorism and war crimes. He has rejected all accusations, describing the proceedings as politically motivated and lacking due process.
Vardanyan is one of 23 Armenian detainees currently held in Azerbaijan. The group includes former political and military leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as civilians captured before and after Azerbaijan's September 2023 offensive. International human rights organizations and legal experts have repeatedly called for their release, arguing that many are being held arbitrarily and that their trials have fallen short of international fair trial standards. Several international organizations, including Amnesty International, have criticized the proceedings against Vardanyan and other Armenian detainees, raising concerns over due process and the treatment of prisoners.
Taleb visited Armenia in December 2023 and gave an interview to CivilNet. Watch the full interview below.
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