Civilnet
By Paul Vartan Sookiasian
AZERBAIJAN WATCH, a recurring title under which CivilNet will focus on what is happening inside the neighboring country.
Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly isolated from the West despite the ties over oil and gas, even as its interests have been undergoing an increasing alignment with Russia. Just last week, Azerbaijan’s credentials were rejected for the next year from participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Baku responded by threatening to withdraw from top European bodies including the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights, although it remains unclear how those actions would hurt Europe.
Perspectives | #Azerbaijan's boringest election campaign ever. The public has perhaps never been so disengaged from politics. By Bahruz Samadov @bahruz_samad via @eurasianet https://t.co/HbnSb00efJ
— Notes from Georgia/South Caucasus (Hälbig, Ralph) (@SouthCaucasus) February 3, 2024
While in most countries a presidential election is a monumental moment in civic life, the campaign leading up to the February 7 election in Azerbaijan has been called the “boringest ever.” President Ilham Aliyev surprised observers when in December he announced a snap election would be held on February 7, rather than in October 2025 as stipulated by the Constitution. The reason behind this change is unclear, though some have speculated it seizes on a high-point for Aliyev’s popularity just after the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh last September. Yet with the regime’s hold on media and civic activity, and there being no opposition in the country, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t win the election no matter when it takes place.
Presidential elections are just 2 days away, and nobody cares. I have asked about ~100 people in the village, and they said there is no meaning to participate. This is the most boring, uneventful, and meaningless election in Azerbaijan. Waste of time, money, and energy.
— Cavid Ağa #RussiaIsNotAlly (@cavidaga) February 5, 2024
Thus, there is disengagement and apathy even with Aliyev’s genuine popularity. The government has made sure there is no space for oppositional thoughts or movements, aggressively arresting journalists and activists.
Another testament to how these elections will be a complete clownery. Presidential candidate Razi Nurullayev's "meeting with voters" was held in Shamakhi. But those who came to the meeting say they don't even know the guy and they were brought by statehttps://t.co/yDrm7ihsx8
— Cavid Ağa #RussiaIsNotAlly (@cavidaga) February 5, 2024
On paper the election is a contested one, with Aliyev being challenged by five opponents, however as demonstrated above they are merely a phantom opposition. Some of them have even campaigned in support of Aliyev while running against him. The more serious opposition parties, Musavat and Popular Front, have both boycotted the vote due to its undemocratic nature and are calling on voters to not participate. However the big story of this election will be by just how close to 100% of the vote President Aliyev will be declared to have received, and just how he will use this popular mandate. Most notoriously, two elections ago in 2013 Azerbaijan’s election authorities announced the vote totals the day before voting actually began.
https://twitter.com/jackhar/status/1754623222513816012In a new scandal, Azerbaijan has refused entry to a member of the Swiss Parliament, Nik Gugger, who traveled to the country to observe the elections and report violations as part of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) election monitoring mission. This is in addition to Baku having already denied PACE the ability to monitor, which was cited as one of the reasons for which Azerbaijan’s credentials from the body.
PACE members were outraged at what they called Azerbaijan playing one European body against another, when traditionally, all post-Soviet republic elections are usually monitored by both organizations, when the country allows observers in at all. However Azerbaijan has engineered an almost unprecedented situation in which all the observers from one body have been rejected and at least one representative from the other, another indication of its abandonment of the European community.
Switzerland, which is dotted with petrol stations supplied by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s national oil company, says it has raised the rejection of Gugger to Azerbaijan through diplomatic channels. While the reason for his rejection has not been announced, Gugger has been a vocal advocate for peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. He signed a statement in October 2020 protesting the war launched by Azerbaijan, and last February is reported to have attended a demonstration with other Swiss MPs to protest the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In the upcoming election, Aliyev evidently plans to extend his nearly two decade hold on power, bringing Azerbaijan into a further isolation from the world.
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